Assessing U.S.-China Diplomatic Solution to North Korea
Monday, January 4, 2021
Note: This piece was originally published at RealClear Defense on January 16, 2018.
During the past year, The Trump Administration and the Kim Jong-Un Regime have been trading consequential barbs regarding nuclear testing and first/second strike capabilities. While rhetoric may seem that war on the Peninsula is unavoidable, there are still ways to engage the Kim Jong-un Regime while keeping the peace among Asian allies.
As recently as October, U.S. Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, stated that the U.S. was in ‘direct contact’ with North Korea and are open to the possibility of talks.[1] Until current conditions change, rigorous diplomacy can still take place. Also, U.S. Defense Secretary, Jim Mattis, has said, “No one is rushing for war.”[2] A strong majority of the U.S. Administration appears to favor a diplomatic strategy; however, they must convince President Trump to cut back on the back and forth banter.
The United States must make clear that war is the last option and not the first. Diplomatic tactics must be fully exhausted before further actions are considered. Any act of war by either side would result in a full arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, not limited to chemical, biological, and nuclear by North Korea, an “appropriate response” by the South and allies, and an estimated 1 million deceased.[3] The stakes have never been higher taking out the first two World Wars, making pre-emptive strikes a horrible miscalculation by either side.
Among South Koreans, the will to avoid conflict has always been followed up with measures of peace. However, the consequences of such a military outbreak are laid out for the world to see. South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s office said in August:
“Above all, President Moon emphasized that South Korea can never accept a war erupting again on the Korean Peninsula…He stressed that the North Korean nuclear issue must be resolved in a peaceful, diplomatic manner through close coordination between South Korea and the United States."[4]
Diplomatic measures must engage China, Japan, United States, and the larger Six-Party talks that began in 2003 and, but failed in 2009 as North Korea continued their hostile programs. Michael Fuchs, from Foreign Affairs, notes that talks between Washington and Pyongyang can parallel forward momentum that the United States had in negotiating the Iranian nuclear deal.[5] Like all international agreements and arrangements, compromise is paramount and significant concessions required by both sides.
Deterrence methods by the United States and its allies need to be coupled with open dialog so both compromise and sincerity can be on display for Kim Jong-un’s regime. If the U.S. ratchets down the rhetoric, North Korea will have a diminished case for nuclearizing the peninsula. In any scenario, China must be part of the solution and not the problem.
In September, Former Ambassador Christopher Hill told NPR’s Mary Louise Kelly that, “I think there needs to be an understanding that China has to be part of that solution.”[6] Ninety percent of North Korean trade is with China, therefore making China the most important partner allies have in denuclearizing the North.
Liu Xiaoming, China’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, stated he was “cautiously optimistic” that a diplomatic solution can be found to North Korean nuclearization.[7] As China is wary of U.S.- South Korean relations, they recognize that a non-threating North Korea is in its regional self-interest. As negotiations will require compromise, China will continue to play an integral part in mediation between the U.S. and North Korea to find an amicable solution to avoid detrimental combat that will likely change the world.
While China claims it has done “everything its power” to end the crisis, the United States must do its part and bring China closer into the fold. A bilateral strategy must be initiated by the two major powers to engage North Korea in such a way where a small level of trust is created to begin talks. Possible concessions include acknowledging North Korea as a nuclear power with the ultimate goal of ending their program. Additionally, South Korea aligning themselves more with China and trade will result in a reengagement of trust between the Peninsula and bring China to the table as part of a reinvigorated Six-Party Talks.
For the United States to bring China to the table, the Trump Administration must also acknowledge China’s place in the world. They will be a superpower going forward, no economic trends or labeling as a “currency manipulator” will reverse that trend. Strategic diplomacy aimed towards quelling China’s concerns about the U.S. is a paramount position to start with.
China and the U.S. may be distrustful at this moment in time, but one cannot ignore its power going forward. Bilateral talks must begin with an agreement between China and the U.S, as North Korean talks are intertwined with a rebalanced relationship.
Endnotes:
[1] BBC News. (16 October 2017). North Korea crisis: Tillerson says diplomacy will continue. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from [www.bbc.com/news/worl...](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41629233.)
[2] Stewart, P. (26 October 2017). Mattis talks diplomacy on North Korea ahead of Trump’s Asia tour. Reuters. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from [www.reuters.com/article/u...](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/mattis-talks-diplomacy-on-north-korea-ahead-of-trumps-asia-tour-idUSKBN1CW04W.)
[3] Powell, B. (24 April 2017). What war with North Korea will look like. Newsweek. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from [www.newsweek.com/2017/05/0...](http://www.newsweek.com/2017/05/05/what-war-north-korea-looks-588861.html.)
[4] Harris, G. (7 August 2017). A rare round of diplomacy from North Korea’s top diplomat. New York Times. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from [www.nytimes.com/2017/08/0...](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/07/world/asia/north-korea-asean-tillerson.html.)
[5] Fuchs, M. (21 December 2017). The North Korea deal. Foreign Affairs. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from [www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/...](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2017-12-21/north-korea-deal.)
[6] NPR Morning Edition. (4 September 2017). What diplomacy can and can’t change with North Korea. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from [www.npr.org/2017/09/0...](https://www.npr.org/2017/09/04/548415546/what-diplomacy-can-and-cant-change-with-north-korea.)
[7] Jones, S. (19 November 2017). China optimistic diplomacy will solve North Korean nuclear issue. Bloomberg. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from [www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-19/china-optimistic-diplomacy-will-solve-north-korea-nuclear-issue.)